Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT
Tuesday, February 17, 2004
 
The BEAT Goes On

I'm pleased to announce that Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT has become an official member of the All-Baseball.com network.

The new URL address for Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT is:

http://www.all-baseball.com/richbeat

The new RSS feed is as follows:

http://www.all-baseball.com/richbeat/index.xml

Eight months ago when I started Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT, I could not have envisioned joining up with Christian Ruzich (The Cub Reporter and The Transaction Guy), Alex Belth (Bronx Banter), Mike Carminati (Mike's Baseball Rants), Will Carroll (The Will Carroll Weblog), Mark McClusky (Baysball), Jon Weisman (Dodger Thoughts), Peter White (Mariner Musings), and Bryan Smith (Wait 'Til Next Year) in such an exciting and promising venture.

I'm honored to be associated with these talented writers, and I'm proud to call each and every fellow member a friend. The relationships that I have developed with writers and readers alike have meant a lot to me, and I look forward to building upon them in the weeks, months, and years ahead.

All-Baseball.com. Is there a more descriptive name for a baseball website than that? Our aim is to deliver baseball content that is distinctive, relevant, and entertaining to a growing base of readers. We want you to check in with us in the morning, during your coffee break, at lunchtime, and in the evening before, during, or after Baseball Tonight.

Effective immediately, all of my new columns will be found exclusively at this new site. Please reset your bookmarks and links at your convenience.

Thank you for your past patronage, and I hope to maintain your loyalty as we go forward.

"And the BEAT goes on, the BEAT goes on..."

Saturday, February 14, 2004
 
Dream Weaver

I've just closed my eyes again
Climbed aboard the dream weaver train
Driver take away my worries of today
And leave tomorrow behind

(chorus)
Ooh dream weaver
I believe you can get me through the night
Ooh dream weaver
I believe we can reach the morning light
Fly me high through the starry skies
Maybe to an astral plane
Cross the highways of fantasy
Help me to forget todays pain


--Gary Wright


I attended a baseball game between #9-ranked Long Beach State and #16-ranked University of Southern California on Friday night. The game was played in Long Beach at Blair Field, one of the most beautiful ballparks in the country. A school-record 3,163 fans attended the Dirtbags' home opener. It was a standing-room-only crowd except for those sitting atop the fire engine truck beyond the left field wall.





The sell-out crowd was treated with a dazzling performance by Jered Weaver, Long Beach's ace starter. Weaver struck out the first ten Trojans he faced, including four in the third inning. Ten up, ten down. All via strikeouts. The first six went down swinging on 0-2 and 1-2 pitches.

In the top of the third, Weaver continued his streak, getting Baron Frost to miss on a 0-2 pitch far outside the strike zone. The ball eluded Catcher Brad Davis and rolled to the backstop, allowing Frost to reach first base. The big right-hander proceeded to "K" Billy Hart (who served as USC's fourth-string QB last fall), Hector Estrella, and Jon Brewster, the latter for the second time in the first three innings.

Michael Moon then flied out to right field to lead off the fourth inning, ending Weaver's strikeout streak at ten. The All-American went on to whiff 14 Trojans in seven innings as Long Beach State defeated USC, 3-1. Relievers Brett Andrade and Neil Jamison combined for three strikeouts, tying the 49ers' record of 17 for the game.

Weaver opened his 2004 season last week, pitching seven shutouts innings while scattering three hits with no walks and six strikeouts. For his effort, Weaver was honored as Collegiate Baseball's National Player of the Week--the third time that he has won this award.

Big-Time Prospect

If you hadn't heard of Weaver before, you have now. If he remains healthy, look for him to go in the top five in this year's draft. Weaver is so advanced and such a dominant force that it would not surprise me if he pitched in the big leagues in 2005.

Weaver's pedigree (he's the younger brother of Dodger pitcher Jeff Weaver), size (6'6", 200), arm (low-90s fastball), and record make him as good a bet as any amateur pitcher to succeed as a professional.

I sat directly behind home plate among a sea of major league baseball scouts, surrounded by more radar guns than at a California Highway Patrol convention.

A Kansas City Royals scout sitting behind us told me that he "wouldn't rush" Weaver. When I asked him if he preferred high school or college players, he said "college" when it came to pitchers--noting that most arm injuries are incurred between the ages of 18-20.

When I mentioned Zack Greinke, the Royals' top pitching prospect and #1 draft pick in 2002, he just smiled. Greinke was drafted as a high schooler even though General Manager Allard Baird had instructed his staff that he wanted to select a college pitcher in the first round. The 20-year-old prized prospect dominated the Carolina League and acquitted himself well enough in the Texas League last year that he stands an outside chance of making the team this spring.

Weaver is actually a year older than Greinke. If the latter can make it to the big leagues this year, then why couldn't the former get there next year? Although Weaver may not have Greinke's professional experience, he has pieced together an incredible resume.

During his sophomore season, Weaver was 14-4 with a 1.96 ERA. He tied a school record with 144 strikeouts. Weaver then led Team USA to the silver medal in the Pan American Games. He went 4-1 with a USA single-season record 0.38 ERA and was named Baseball America's Pitcher of the Summer. Weaver strung together an all-time record scoreless innings streak of 45 before giving up his only two runs in an eight-inning loss to Cuba in the championship game.

Nothing But Dirtbags

Weaver was the fourth straight 49er to be named to Team USA, following teammate Abe Alvarez (2002), Jeremy Reed (2001), and Bobby Crosby (2000). Alvarez was selected by the Red Sox in last year's draft.

After the draft, Boston GM Theo Epstein said, "We were really happy to get Abe Alvarez. He's a first-round talent and we got him in the second round."

"Alvarez is a left-hander who has gone out for Long Beach State every Friday night for the last three years against other team's No. 1 starter. He's an outstanding performer. He has command of the strike zone and can get swings and misses with his changeup. He's an entertaining pitcher to watch."

Reed, a center fielder with the Chicago White Sox, and Crosby, a shortstop with the Oakland A's, are two of the favorites to capture Rookie of the Year honors in the American League this year. Reed and Crosby were named first team Minor League All-Stars in 2003.

Reed, who finished third in the Minor League Player of the Year voting, led all minor leaguers in batting average (.373) and on-base percentage (.453), splitting time between Single-A Winston-Salem and Double-A Birmingham. Reed was rated the the second-best prospect in the Carolina League and the third-best prospect in the Southern League.

Crosby, who made his major league debut last September, batted .308 with 22 home runs and 90 RBI for Triple-A Sacramento. Crosby was voted the third-best prospect in the Pacific Coast League and was named Baseball America's Triple-A Player of the Year.

Other past National Team players from Long Beach State include current major leaguers Rocky Biddle (1995) of the Montreal Expos, Jason Giambi (1991, 1992) of the New York Yankees, and Chris Gomez (1990, 1991) of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Long Beach's baseball program has also produced Mike Gallo (Houston Astros), Jeff Leifer (Milwaukee Brewers), and Steve Trachsel (New York Mets) as well as Termel Sledge (Montreal Expos). Sledge, a 27-year-old rookie, had an outstanding season (.324, 22, 92) at Triple-A Edmonton last year and is expected to compete for the team's starting left field job this spring.

If you sold any of the above 49ers short, please be advised that it's not too late to climb aboard the Dream Weaver train.

Richard Lederer
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT
www.baseballbeat.blogspot.com

Sunday, February 08, 2004
 
Weapons of Mass Production

Sabermetricians are guilty of developing too many Weapons of Mass Destruction. Too many stats. Too much confusion. It's time to get back to the basics. If we reduce the number of weapons (stats), then it follows we can reduce the amount of destruction (confusion).

Substitute Production for Destruction, and you've got Weapons of Mass Production. Production, in this case, is the original name for on base plus slugging. John Thorn and Pete Palmer of Total Baseball created the stat, shortening it to PRO. The authors also developed Production Plus (PRO+) before OPS+ was popularized by Baseball-Reference.com. Production Plus, like OPS+ in later years, normalizes PRO (or OPS) to league average and adjusts for home-park factor. A mark of 100 is a league-average performance.

Ted Williams in his book Ted Williams' Hit List (which was written in 1996) gave "special credence" to PRO in ranking the greatest hitters of all time.

"We looked at various systems and methods, and we can't conceive of anything superior to this one. It is a simple statistic that is nonetheless as fair, as thorough, and as thought-out as any that has ever been used.

I realize that everyone has a different idea of what constiutes a great hitter. For some it's a high batting average. For others it's the guy with the most total hits--or home runs or RBIs. I've always believed that slugging percentage plus on base percentage is absolutely the best way to rate the hitters. This is something I've been talking about for a long, long time. To begin with, I've always felt that the bases on balls factor should be given more significance in rating a hitter's overall performance at the plate."

The beauty of PRO is its accuracy and simplicity. You don't need to know advanced math. You don't even need a calculator. You just add the two most important rate stats and bingo, you've got your number. I realize if you multiply rather than add these two percentages, you get a product that has an ever so slightly higher correlation with runs scored. There have also been some newfangled attempts to use a multiplier for the on-base average before adding this adjusted number to the slugging percentage.

Why complicate a formula that works just fine as is? I don't see the need to create additional methodologies unless they prove to be sufficiently more accurate to make up for their additional complexity. Wouldn't it be much easier for all of us to hold more intelligent discussions if we adopted batting average, on-base average, and slugging average as the three main rate stats when evaluating or comparing players? If we could agree on those three metrics, then wouldn't it also make sense to use PRO or OPS as a "quick and dirty" solo stat? Gosh, if we could come to terms with BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS as the basic core set of rate stats, wouldn't OPS+ be understood by the average fan in due time? If so, wouldn't that be a great first step for evaluating and comparing players by positions or within a league or from one era to another?

Counting stats would be a whole different matter. I'm not proposing that we throw out traditional stats such as hits, doubles, triples, and home runs but anything that would wean fans from a myopic focus on runs batted in would be a positive in my mind. How about times on base, total bases, and outs as the three core counting stats? If we could agree on those categories, then something like Runs Created could serve as the summary counting stat just as OPS would do the same on the rate side.

The value of walks and power as well as the scarcity of outs would all become better understood and appreciated by baseball fans, announcers, writers, and analysts alike. For those of us who wish to look into the numbers even further, the use of related stats such as isolated power and secondary average or developing "new frontier" stats involving defense, pitching, and baserunning makes more sense than affixing another label to the same can of alphabet soup.

By the way, a couple of tables for those who think OPS is dated and not an accurate measure of offensive production:

ON BASE PLUS SLUGGING
TOP TEN SINGLE SEASONS
MODERN (1900-2003)

                              YEAR     OPS    

1 Barry Bonds 2002 1.381
2 Babe Ruth 1920 1.379
3 Barry Bonds 2001 1.379
4 Babe Ruth 1921 1.359
5 Babe Ruth 1923 1.309
6 Ted Williams 1941 1.287
7 Barry Bonds 2003 1.278
8 Babe Ruth 1927 1.258
9 Ted Williams 1957 1.257
10 Babe Ruth 1926 1.253

Not a bad list, huh? When I see nothing but Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams, I am reminded that we're talking about pretty exclusive company here.


OPS+
TOP TEN SINGLE SEASONS
MODERN (1900-2003)

                              YEAR    OPS+    

1 Barry Bonds 2002 275
2 Barry Bonds 2001 262
3 Babe Ruth 1920 255
4 Babe Ruth 1921 239
Babe Ruth 1923 239
6 Ted Williams 1941 235
7 Ted Williams 1957 233
8 Barry Bonds 2003 231
9 Babe Ruth 1926 227
10 Babe Ruth 1927 226

Adjusted or unadjusted. The monopoly of Bonds, Ruth, and Williams prevails.

One of the best features of OPS+ is the fact that it not only adjusts OPS for park effects but that it also standardizes it versus the league average. A player with an OPS+ of 120 is 20% above the league average OPS+. An OPS+ of 80 is 20% below the league average OPS+. [Editor's added note: OPS+ = 100 * ((OBP/lgOBP*) + (SLG/lgSLG*) - 1)]

Thanks to the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, we can standardize all stats to the league average. The following is an example of the first table presented above with OPS expressed as a ratio versus the league average.

ON BASE PLUS SLUGGING
TOP TEN SINGLE SEASONS
RELATIVE TO THE LEAGUE AVERAGE
MODERN (1900-2003)

                              YEAR     RATE   PLAYER   LEAGUE   

1 Babe Ruth 1920 182 1.379 .757
2 Barry Bonds 2002 181 1.381 .763
3 Barry Bonds 2001 177 1.379 .781
4 Babe Ruth 1921 173 1.359 .786
5 Babe Ruth 1923 172 1.309 .761
6 Ted Williams 1957 171 1.257 .733
7 Ted Williams 1941 170 1.287 .758
8 Barry Bonds 2003 166 1.278 .772
9 Babe Ruth 1926 163 1.253 .768
10 Babe Ruth 1927 163 1.258 .773

The order is slightly different than the one not standardized to the league average, but the names remain the same.

Weapons of Mass Production. Batting average, on base average, slugging average, and OPS. Times on base, total bases, outs, and runs created. Four by four (and, thank goodness, not the rotisserie syle). Four rate stats and four counting stats.

These stats can be expressed in absolute terms for simplicity. They can be standardized to the league and positional average for comparative purposes. Or they can be normalized for home-park factors when necessary.

There are other worthwhile measurement tools for sure. But many of them are better applied to scouting and player development than evaluating actual performance.

The bottom line is that we should concentrate on reducing rather than expanding the batting metrics available to us. Having said that, I support the sabermetric community in its efforts to quantify defensive value, and I think there is still much more work ahead of us when it comes to computing baserunning as a separate area of performance.

Sources: Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia and Baseball-Reference.com.

Richard Lederer
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT
www.baseballbeat.blogspot.com

Saturday, January 31, 2004
 

Sheff's Special

Power-Hitting OF Ranks Among the Game's Elite


My eight-year-old nephew opened up a pack of baseball cards on Christmas Eve. My brothers and I gathered around him as he shuffled through the cards. When he came to Gary Sheffield, I said, "Future Hall of Famer". I proceeded to grab the card so I could inspect it further. One of my brothers looked at me in disbelief as if I were holding a Matt Stairs card.

Well, as it turns out, my baseball fan brother isn't the only one who thinks Sheffield isn't worthy of such status. Two weeks later, ESPN's Jayson Stark, in Explaining My Hall Ballot, wrote the following in justifying his decision not to vote for Jim Rice:

"He was a power hitter who barely cracks the top 50 all-time in homers (382) and RBI (1,451). In fact, his career numbers (.298 avg., 382 HR) are almost identical to Gary Sheffield's (.299, 379 HR). And does anyone out there see Sheffield as a Hall of Famer?"

Yes, I do. Why not? The case for Sheffield is certainly a much easier one to make than the one against him. Don't believe me? Let's take a look.





First of all, I would like to point out that Rice appears to be a borderline Hall of Fame candidate who, in time, may be selected by either the Baseball Writers Association of America or the Veterans Committee. Rice has garnered more than 50% of the vote in each of the past five years. According to a study by Mike Carminati at Mike's Baseball Rants, every player who has ever received at least 50% of the votes from the BBWAA has eventually been enshrined in Cooperstown other than Gil Hodges.

Rice's HOF qualifications can be summarized as follows:

Black Ink: Batting - 33 (49) (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 176 (56) (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 42.9 (116) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 147.0 (75) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Rice meets three of the four standards as developed by Bill James, and he falls just shy of the fourth. I recognize that these metrics were designed by James to measure how likely a player is to gain admittance to the Hall of Fame and not necessarily how good they were. In any event, I believe these standards are a handy tool when reviewing the candidancies of retired players due to the fact that they encompass a wide range of quantitative and qualitative achievements.

Given James' follow-up work, it may make sense to add Win Shares to the above criteria when evaluating the worthiness of Hall of Famers. Rice ended his career with 282 Win Shares or 55 below the HOF average of 337 (as determined by Mike C.). As such, an argument regarding Rice's Hall worthiness can be made logically on or against his behalf.

With that behind us, let's now compare Rice to Sheffield.


CAREER COUNTING STATS

		G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO

Sheffield 1882 6729 1190 2009 356 23 379 1232 1110 796
Rice 2089 8225 1249 2452 373 79 382 1451 670 1423

Although the two sluggers have almost identical home run totals as Stark pointed out, Rice has played 207 more games and has had 1,496 more at bats than Sheffield.


CAREER RATE STATS

		 BA	 OBP	 SLG	 OPS	OPS+

Sheffield .299 .401 .527 .928 147
Rice .298 .352 .502 .854 128

Yes, Jayson, Rice and Sheffield have virtually the same batting averages, too. However, is batting average the end all when it comes to measuring the prowess of hitters? Is it really a better gauge than on-base percentage and slugging average? Welcome to the 21st century. Sheffield beats Rice in OBP and SLG and, by definition, OPS. For those of you who may be concerned about context given the fact that Sheffield has played in a higher run-scoring environment than Rice, the former's adjusted on base plus slugging (OPS+) is 47% above the league average whereas the latter's is 28% above the norm.

Get the broom out. It's a clean sweep. Sheffield has higher OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ totals. To the extent that Sheffield's rate stats decline slightly as he ages, he will more than make it up in his mounting cumulative totals. In fact, based on hitting 31 HR per year (a more than 10% regression from his five-year average), Sheffield will pierce the magical 500 plateau in 2007.

A season-by-season review of Rice's and Sheffield's OPS+ numbers shows that Sheff has topped his counterpart 12 out of 13 times (based on 300 or more plate appearances).


SEASONAL OPS+
(Ranked from High to Low)


Rice	Sheffield

158 190
154 178
148 168
141 167
137 167
131 156
128 144
123 140
123 138
121 134
117 120
112 116
102 82
101

Sheffield has produced six seasons with OPS+ totals over 150 whereas Rice only had two such years. (I have found that the number of campaigns of 150 or more for corner outfielders and first basemen an interesting guide for comparing and evaluating players. There are usually just a handful of players with OPS+ ratings of 150 each season.)

The biggest difference between Rice and Sheffield is in the number of outs that these two players have generated over the course of their careers.


		PA	OUTS

Sheffield 8035 5067
Rice 9058 6221

Rice has created 1,154 more outs than Sheffield in only 1,023 more plate appearances. What does that all mean? Although I'm quite sure Yankee fans wouldn't be happy about it, Sheffield could basically go could oh-fer the next two seasons and not be any worse than Rice for his career. In a nutshell, the huge disparity in the number of outs between these two is the reason why Sheffield has been the more valuable offensive player. With respect to the rest of their games, Sheffield is by no means a lesser defensive player or baserunner than Rice. Therefore, his offensive superiority makes him the better overall ballplayer.

If Rice is a borderline Hall of Famer and Sheffield is shown to have superior credentials, then what does that make Sheffield? To borrow a page out of former vice presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen's playbook: "Jayson, I have studied Gary Sheffield. I know Gary Sheffield. Gary Sheffield is a great offensive player. Jayson, Jim Rice is no Gary Sheffield."

I'm sure some of you may be thinking, "That's great. Sheffield is better than Rice. But how does Sheffield compare to others?" For that, let's take a look at the incomparable Baseball-Reference.com's listing of similar batters through the age of 34.


SHEFFIELD'S COMPS

Duke Snider (922) *
Reggie Jackson (900) *
Billy Williams (898) *
Jeff Bagwell (885)
Dale Murphy (880)
Rafael Palmeiro (879)
Jim Rice (872)
Orlando Cepeda (865) *
Dave Winfield (864) *
Dick Allen (863)

* Signifies Hall of Famer

Based on James' definitions, Duke Snider and Reggie Jackson have similarity scores that can be described as "truly similar" to Sheffield through the age of 34. The remaining players can be described as "similar" or "essentially similar". Five of the eight players on the above list eligible for the Hall of Fame have already been inducted. The two active players stand an excellent chance of being voted in five years after their retirements. As such, seven of Sheffield's ten most similar players are either in the Hall of Fame or are HOF bound. (Interestingly, Rice is among the three who have not been enshrined. He could easily make it eight-for-ten, and it is not unreasonable to assume that Dale Murphy and/or Dick Allen may one day gain admittance to Cooperstown.)

OK, Sheffield is similar to these players but is he better? Good question. For the answer, let's turn to two of my favorite stats--Runs Created Above Average and Runs Created Above Position (both from Lee Sinins' Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia).


RUNS CREATED ABOVE AVERAGE
(Career, 1900-on)
                                RCAA      OBA      SLG      OPS    

1 Babe Ruth 1795 .474 .690 1.164
2 Ted Williams 1475 .482 .634 1.116
3 Ty Cobb 1369 .433 .512 .945
4 Barry Bonds 1344 .433 .602 1.035
5 Lou Gehrig 1247 .447 .632 1.080
6 Stan Musial 1204 .417 .559 .976
7 Mickey Mantle 1099 .421 .557 .977
8 Rogers Hornsby 1084 .434 .577 1.010
9 Tris Speaker 1053 .428 .500 .928
10 Hank Aaron 1032 .374 .555 .928
11 Willie Mays 1008 .384 .557 .941
12 Mel Ott 989 .414 .533 .947
13 Jimmie Foxx 985 .428 .609 1.038
14 Honus Wagner 938 .394 .468 .862
15 Frank Robinson 852 .389 .537 .926
16 Frank Thomas 770 .428 .568 .996
17 Rickey Henderson 763 .401 .419 .820
18 Eddie Collins 747 .424 .429 .853
19 Joe DiMaggio 708 .398 .579 .977
20 Johnny Mize 667 .397 .562 .959
21 Mark McGwire 665 .394 .588 .982
T22 Joe Morgan 663 .392 .427 .819
T22 Harry Heilmann 663 .410 .520 .930
T22 Jeff Bagwell 663 .411 .549 .959
25 Eddie Mathews 655 .376 .509 .885
26 Edgar Martinez 651 .423 .525 .948
27 Nap Lajoie 649 .381 .455 .835
28 Mike Schmidt 623 .380 .527 .908
29 Willie McCovey 606 .374 .515 .889
30 Sam Crawford 594 .362 .452 .814
31 George Brett 593 .369 .487 .857
32 Paul Waner 588 .404 .473 .877
33 Joe Jackson 580 .423 .518 .941
T34 Gary Sheffield 565 .401 .527 .928
T34 Reggie Jackson 565 .356 .490 .846
36 Rafael Palmeiro 562 .373 .522 .894
37 Wade Boggs 556 .415 .443 .858
38 Willie Stargell 553 .360 .529 .889
39 Hank Greenberg 549 .412 .605 1.017
40 Carl Yastrzemski 547 .379 .462 .841
41 Al Kaline 546 .376 .480 .855
42 Ken Griffey Jr. 535 .379 .562 .940
43 Jim Thome 528 .411 .568 .979
44 Manny Ramirez 524 .413 .598 1.010
T45 Tim Raines 516 .385 .425 .810
T45 Harmon Killebrew 516 .376 .509 .884
47 Dick Allen 511 .378 .534 .912
T48 Tony Gwynn 504 .388 .459 .847
T48 Al Simmons 504 .380 .535 .915
T50 Larry Walker 492 .400 .567 .967
T50 Pete Rose 492 .375 .409 .784

RUNS CREATED ABOVE POSITION
(Career, 1900-on)
                                RCAP      OBA      SLG      OPS    

1 Babe Ruth 1594 .474 .690 1.164
2 Ted Williams 1246 .482 .634 1.116
3 Barry Bonds 1218 .433 .602 1.035
4 Rogers Hornsby 1094 .434 .577 1.010
5 Ty Cobb 1078 .433 .512 .945
6 Mickey Mantle 1009 .421 .557 .977
7 Honus Wagner 994 .394 .468 .862
8 Stan Musial 992 .417 .559 .976
9 Lou Gehrig 988 .447 .632 1.080
10 Willie Mays 856 .384 .557 .941
11 Mel Ott 831 .414 .533 .947
T12 Hank Aaron 822 .374 .555 .928
T12 Eddie Collins 822 .424 .429 .853
14 Joe Morgan 820 .392 .427 .819
15 Tris Speaker 777 .428 .500 .928
16 Jimmie Foxx 700 .428 .609 1.038
17 Frank Robinson 674 .389 .537 .926
18 Rickey Henderson 636 .401 .419 .820
19 Eddie Mathews 633 .376 .509 .885
20 Joe DiMaggio 629 .398 .579 .977
21 Nap Lajoie 617 .381 .455 .835
22 Arky Vaughan 598 .406 .453 .859
23 Frank Thomas 594 .428 .568 .996
24 Charlie Gehringer 581 .404 .480 .884
25 Mike Schmidt 576 .380 .527 .908
26 Wade Boggs 575 .415 .443 .858
27 Edgar Martinez 568 .423 .525 .948
28 Ken Griffey Jr. 532 .379 .562 .940
29 Mike Piazza 528 .388 .572 .959
30 Jeff Bagwell 513 .411 .549 .959
31 Johnny Mize 512 .397 .562 .959
32 George Brett 508 .369 .487 .857
33 Mark McGwire 503 .394 .588 .982
34 Gary Sheffield 487 .401 .527 .928
35 Barry Larkin 481 .371 .446 .817
36 Rod Carew 476 .393 .429 .822
37 Alex Rodriguez 474 .382 .581 .963
38 Bill Dickey 473 .382 .486 .868
39 Harry Heilmann 469 .410 .520 .930
40 Willie McCovey 468 .374 .515 .889
41 Reggie Jackson 458 .356 .490 .846
42 Joe Jackson 449 .423 .518 .941
43 Willie Stargell 448 .360 .529 .889
44 Craig Biggio 445 .375 .432 .807
45 Manny Ramirez 444 .413 .598 1.010
46 Yogi Berra 440 .348 .482 .830
47 Joe Cronin 431 .390 .468 .857
48 Mickey Cochrane 425 .419 .478 .897
49 Paul Waner 415 .404 .473 .877
T50 Robin Yount 408 .342 .430 .772
T50 Cal Ripken 408 .340 .447 .788
T50 Jim Thome 408 .411 .568 .979

Sheffield ranks 34th in RCAA and RCAP. Of Sheffield's ten most similar players, only Bagwell ranks higher in RCAA or RCAP. That is, Sheffield has already surpassed the retired Snider, Jackson, Billy Williams, Murphy, Rice, Orlando Cepeda, Dave Winfield, and Allen in both key stats, and he has a lead over the still active Rafael Palmeiro.

Importantly, all the players eligible for the Hall of Fame who rank above Sheffield have already been inducted. In fact, every player listed in the Top 50 in both rankings has a plaque in Cooperstown with the exception of Allen.

Only 15 of the players ranked ahead of Sheffield in RCAA and 14 in RCAP have also produced career OBP of .400 or better, SLG of .500+, and OPS of .900+. It could be argued that Sheffield is among the best and most balanced hitters of all time.

Sheffield has also been a very consistent hitter. He is one of only ten players who have had six or more consecutive seasons with a batting average of .300+, OBP .400+, and SLG .500+.


NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE SEASONS
BA >= .300, OBA >= .400, SLG >= .500


1    Lou Gehrig               1926-37   12   

T2 Babe Ruth 1926-33 8
T2 Stan Musial 1948-55 8
T4 Harry Heilmann 1921-27 7
T4 Frank Thomas 1991-97 7
T4 Edgar Martinez 1995-01 7
T7 Babe Ruth 1919-24 6
T7 Tris Speaker 1920-25 6
T7 Rogers Hornsby 1920-25 6
T7 Chipper Jones 1998-03 6
T7 Gary Sheffield 1998-03 6

All of the players eligible for the Hall of Fame listed above were enshrined long ago. Five of these six players (Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Tris Speaker, and Rogers Hornsby) are considered to be "inner circle" types. Of the three active players, Frank Thomas and Edgar Martinez should be shoo-ins for the Hall, and Chipper Jones is in the process of building a resume worthy of such hallowed status. (Interestingly, if not for Ruth's shortened season in 1925, he could have strung together a record 15 straight seasons of .300/.400/.500. In the meantime, the Babe will have to settle for second and seventh best--the only player to make the Top Ten twice.)

No matter how one slices or dices it, Gary Antonian Sheffield is in pretty exclusive company. Based solely on the numbers, it looks like the Sheff's Hall of Fame qualifications are made to order.

Richard Lederer
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT
www.baseballbeat.blogspot.com

Sunday, January 25, 2004
 

The Grooviest Lefty of All Time


"I'll tell you about fastball pitchers. One day we were playing the Athletics in Yankee Stadium. We were behind by one run in the last of the ninth. We loaded the bases with nobody out. Connie Mack signaled his pitcher off the mound and we all looked toward the bullpen to see who was coming in. But nobody was coming in from the bullpen. Grove walked out of the dugout, threw five warmup pitches, then proceeded to fan the side on ten pitches. The last three he threw to me. I haven't seen any of them yet. Don't ever ask me about fastball pitchers again."

--Bill Dickey, New York Yankees Hall of Fame Catcher




Rob Neyer recently wrote two columns earlier this month regarding "quality of competition". In the first article, Rob mentioned that Lefty Grove was rarely allowed to pitch against the Yankees for a stretch in the early 1930s. In the next paragraph, Rob proceeded to write the following:

"As a practical matter, it doesn't really matter if maybe Lefty Grove was slightly less brilliant than we think he was."

Based on my research, Grove may have started two or three fewer times against the Yankees than would be expected in 1930 and perhaps another time in 1931 and 1935. All told, the number of games that Grove may have been held back during that period is not statistically significant. If anything, it is important to note that Grove started a disproportionate number of games against the Yankees over the course of his career. As such, I don't think Grove deserves to be thought of any less brilliantly now than ever before.

Thanks to Retrosheet, I checked the game logs for each of Grove's 17 seasons in the major leagues and found that Lefty faced the Yankees 69 times out of a total of 457 games started. In other words, Grove went head-to-head vs. the Yankees in 15.1% of his outings. Given that there were eight teams in the league throughout Grove's career, it would be expected that he would start one-seventh or 14.2% of his games against each of the opponents. As it turned out, Grove actually drew the Yankees four more times than projected.


LEFTY GROVE

Year	 GS    vs. NYY	% GS   % vs. NYY

1925 18 4 22.2 18.2
1926 33 7 21.2 31.8
1927 28 5 17.9 22.7
1928 31 7 22.6 31.8
1929 37 5 13.5 22.7
1930 32 2 6.3 9.1
1931 30 3 10.0 13.6
1932 30 4 13.3 18.2
1933 28 4 14.3 18.2
1934 12 1 8.3 4.5
1935 30 3 10.0 13.6
1936 30 7 23.3 31.8
1937 32 5 15.6 22.7
1938 21 4 19.0 18.2
1939 23 4 17.4 18.2
1940 21 2 9.5 9.1
1941 21 2 9.5 9.1
Total 457 69 15.1 18.4

A cynic might point to the fact that Grove only started 18.4% of his team's games vs. the Yankees when, in fact, he should have been expected to start 20%-25% given the four and five-man rotations of the day. Such reasoning would be faulty due to the reality that Grove only started 17.5% of his team's games during his career. As a result, no matter which way one looks at it, Grove actually started more than his fair share of games vs. the Bronx Bombers.


Hall of Famers Galore

There was one particular game in which Grove started against the Yankees that is worth delving into in more detail.

In the first game of a doubleheader between the visiting New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Athletics on May 24, 1928, a record 13 future Hall of Famers took the field. An additional six HOFers either didn't play or were managers or umpires.

Miller Huggins of the Yankees featured a lineup of Earle Combs, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Tony Lazzeri, Leo Durocher, and Waite Hoyt. Connie Mack countered with Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Cochrane, Al Simmons, Eddie Collins, Jimmie Foxx, and Grove. In addition, Herb Pennock and Stan Coveleski of the Yankees were in uniform but didn't play. Tom Connolly and Bill McGowan umpired the game and later were enshrined in Cooperstown.

Cobb, Speaker, and Collins were all over 40 years old, and they were only remnants of their old selves. In fact, 1928 turned out to be Cobb's and Speaker's final year. Cobb and Speaker were part-time players, and Collins was nothing more than a pinch hitter.

Cobb played in 95 games and had an adjusted on-base plus slugging average (OPS+) of 112, the lowest since his rookie season in 1905. Speaker played in 64 games and had an OPS+ of 95, his third consecutive yearly decline and the lowest since 1908 when he had only 125 plate appearances in his second big league season. Collins played in 36 games and had 33 at bats that year.

Foxx, on the other hand, was 20 years old. He wasn't even old enough to vote, yet was in the midst of his fourth season in the big leagues (albeit the first with over 100 games). Foxx played 60 games at third base, 30 at first, and 19 as Cochrane's backup at catcher.

Cochrane won the first of his two Most Valuable Player Awards in 1928 despite not finishing in the top ten in batting average, on base percentage, or slugging average. He ended the season eighth in base on balls and tenth in runs scored and triples. Cochrane was an odd choice for MVP, but previous winners Ruth (1923) and Gehrig (1927) were ineligible under the rules of the day (later changed allowing Cochrane to win a second MVP as a Detroit Tiger in 1934).

By comparison, Ruth and Gehrig were one-two in runs, home runs, extra base hits, times on base, on base percentage, slugging average, and OPS, and they tied for the league lead in RBI. The Bambino also led in walks and total bases, while the Iron Horse tied for the lead in doubles.


Clash of the Titans

The Yankees (26-6) and A's (21-8) were in first and second place when the teams squared off at Shibe Park. The Yankees were coming off a 110-44 record and a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the World Series in 1927.

There was a lot of excitement in the air. The home team Athletics were on a five-game winning streak and Grove, the starting pitcher, had won six straight. Fans flocked to the stadium from far and wide with 500 "motor cars" bearing identification from such places as New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and Washington D.C. according to Joseph J. Dittmar of the Baseball Records Registry. The reported paid attendance was nearly 42,000, the largest crowd to date in Philadelphia baseball history.

Lazzeri spoiled the afternoon for the home faithful with three hits and six RBI, leading the Bronx Bombers to a 9-7 win over the A's. Grove, who led the A.L. with 24 wins and 183 strikeouts, was tagged with one of his only eight losses for the year.

The A's won the nightcap of this landmark doubleheader, 5-2. However, the Yankees went on to win the American League pennant and sweep the National League champion St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series. Gehrig led the way, going 6-for-11 with four home runs, nine RBI, and six BB in four games. Ruth went 10-for-16 with three homers and nine runs scored.

Grove definitely did not duck out against the Yankees that season. He started seven times or in nearly one-third of the match-ups between the rivals, including opening day and the first game of the series three other times. Although Grove didn't fare particularly well (winning only once), he definitely took the ball every time it was his turn to pitch.

According to Don Malcolm of the Big Bad Baseball fame in a post on Baseball Primer, Grove was 30-25 with an ERA of 3.82 as a starting pitcher vs. the Yankees, including 18-16, 4.34 with the A's and 12-9, 3.11 with the Red Sox. Those numbers are well below Grove's record vs. the rest of the league but that is not surprising given the fact that the Yankees were the best team in baseball for much of his career.


Holy (Robert) Moses!

Grove had an overall won-loss total of 300-141 with an ERA of 3.06. Lefty was named the Most Valuable Player in 1931 and captured the so-called Triple Crown of pitching in 1930 and 1931. From July 25, 1930 through September 24, 1931, he went 46-4. Grove led the league in ERA a record nine times, including four straight from 1929-1932. Grove also topped the circuit in strikeouts in each of his first seven seasons.

Based on the way staff aces are handled now, it might surprise some to learn that Lefty was one of the best relief pitchers of his day as well. Of Grove's 616 appearances, 159 were as a reliever. He saved a total of 55 games and finished in the top seven every year from 1926-1933, including a league-leading nine in 1930.

Grove became just the fifth pitcher to win 300 games in the modern era even though he didn't make it to the majors until he was 25 years old. Prior to that, he accumulated a record of 109-36 for the independently owned Baltimore Orioles of the International League. The O's won the pennant all five years Grove played for them with Lefty posting records of 12-2, 25-10, 18-8, 27-10, and 27-6 while leading the league in strikeouts in each of the final four campaigns. After the 1924 season, Connie Mack of the Philadelphia A's agreed to pay $100,000 for Grove's contract plus an extra $600 to make the purchase higher than the amount the Yankees paid the Red Sox for Babe Ruth.

An article featuring Robert Moses "Lefty" Grove would not be complete without the following lists:


RUNS SAVED ABOVE AVERAGE
1    Lefty Grove                 668   

2 Walter Johnson 643
3 Roger Clemens 613
4 Greg Maddux 540
5 Grover C Alexander 524
6 Randy Johnson 461
7 Pedro Martinez 453
8 Christy Mathewson 405
9 Tom Seaver 404
10 Carl Hubbell 355

ADJUSTED EARNED RUN AVERAGE (ERA+)
1    Pedro Martinez              174

2 Lefty Grove 148
3 Walter Johnson 146
4 Hoyt Wilhelm 146
5 Ed Walsh 145
6 Randy Johnson 143
Greg Maddux 143
8 Addie Joss 142
9 Roger Clemens 140
10 Mordecai Brown 138

EARNED RUN AVERAGE MINUS THE LEAGUE AVERAGE

                                DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE

1 Pedro Martinez 1.87 2.58 4.46
2 Lefty Grove 1.36 3.06 4.42
3 Randy Johnson 1.25 3.10 4.35
4 Hoyt Wilhelm 1.24 2.52 3.76
5 Roger Clemens 1.20 3.19 4.39
6 Lefty Gomez 1.16 3.34 4.50
7 Greg Maddux 1.16 2.89 4.05
8 Kevin Brown 1.12 3.16 4.29
9 Whitey Ford 1.10 2.74 3.84
10 Walter Johnson 1.07 2.17 3.24

EARNED RUN AVERAGE AS RATIO OF THE LEAGUE AVERAGE

                                RATE   PLAYER   LEAGUE

1 Pedro Martinez 173 2.58 4.46
2 Ed Walsh 152 1.82 2.76
3 Walter Johnson 149 2.17 3.24
4 Hoyt Wilhelm 149 2.52 3.76
5 Lefty Grove 144 3.06 4.42
6 Addie Joss 144 1.89 2.72
7 Mordecai Brown 140 2.06 2.89
8 Randy Johnson 140 3.10 4.35
9 Greg Maddux 140 2.89 4.05
10 Whitey Ford 140 2.74 3.84

Based on these various ways of measuring runs saved versus the league average, Grove ranks anywhere from first to fifth all time. Of note, Pedro Martinez is the only pitcher who places higher than Grove more than once, sitting atop three of the four leader boards. Furthermore, Grove, Martinez, Walter Johnson, and Hoyt Wilhelm are the only pitchers listed in the top five at least three times. Finally, Grove, Martinez, W. Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson are the only pitchers who rank in the top ten in all four methods. Roger Clemens deserves special mention, placing in the top five twice and top ten three times. Wilhelm's top ten ratings are based solely on rate stats and are not validated by the RSAA counting stat. As a result, I would tend to discount his standing relative to the other six.

Sources: Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia and Baseball-Reference.com. The above lists are based on career totals (modern 1900-on) and 2,000 or more innings pitched.
Photo Credit: Baseball-Library.com/Matt Fulling.

Richard Lederer
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT
www.baseballbeat.blogspot.com

Saturday, January 17, 2004
 
The Bert Alert

The results of Neal Traven's 2004 Internet Hall of Fame (IHOF) vote were released about the same time as those from the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). Traven, who is the co-chair of the Statistical Analysis Committee of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), has been conducting a HOF vote online since 1991.

As shown below, the IHOF and the BBWAA voters agree that Dennis Eckersley and Paul Molitor are worthy of enshrinement in Cooperstown. The two factions have not differed all that much over the past 12 years, seeing eye-to-eye on 14 of the 17 honorees. The Internet voters did not view Don Sutton, Tony Perez, and Kirby Puckett as deserving choices, and they saw fit to add Phil Niekro, Carlton Fisk, and Gary Carter one year before the BBWAA.


	        Internet Voting	        Actual Results

Player Votes Pct Votes Pct
Dennis Eckersley 1940 82.1 421 83.2
Paul Molitor 1888 79.9 431 85.2
Bert Blyleven 1717 72.7 179 35.4
Ryne Sandberg 1635 69.2 309 61.1
Rich Gossage 1236 52.3 206 40.7
Alan Trammell 968 41.0 70 13.8
Bruce Sutter 695 29.4 301 59.5
Jim Rice 553 23.4 276 54.6
Andre Dawson 510 21.6 253 50.0
Lee Smith 423 17.9 185 36.6
Tommy John 375 15.9 111 21.9
Jack Morris 368 15.6 133 26.3

Despite the unanimity with respect to Eckersley and Molitor, the Internet voters and the writers have a very different view of the other candidates. The player with the biggest disparity is none other than Bert Blyleven, who received nearly 73% of the online vote and only 35% of the actual vote. The latter, however, was a 6% improvement over the previous year. At that rate of progress, Blyleven will sneak into the HOF in his 14th year of eligibility.

If Blyleven can make it over the 50% hump, he will stand an excellent chance of eventually being inducted based on a study performed by Mike Carminati at Mike's Baseball Rants. According to Mike, Gil Hodges is the only player (other than those still on the ballot) who has received at least half of the votes and not been enshrined at a later date. Should the past be prologue, Ryne Sandberg (61%), Bruce Sutter (60%), Jim Rice (55%), and Andre Dawson (50%) appear to have an excellent shot at being enshrined.

Jay Jaffe, the proprietor of the Futility Infielder, wrote an outstanding and comprehensive two-part series for Baseball Prospectus analyzing the hitters and the pitchers from the Class of 2004. Here are a couple of excerpts from Jaffe's report on Blyleven:

Which brings us finally to Bert Blyleven, the stathead's choice among Hall-eligible starters, and quite possibly the best player not in the Hall of Fame...Hall of Fame voters perform all kinds of gymnastics in attempting to justify why Blyleven doesn't get their vote, most of them fixated on his relatively unimpressive winning percentage (.534), his 250 losses, a win total just shy of 300, and his failure to win a Cy Young award.

One of the traditional complaints against Blyleven is that he didn't win any Cy Young awards, and that he didn't win 300 games while a whole bunch of his contemporaries did. Well, here's how Bert compares to his enshrined contemporaries, ranked by weighted score:



           PRAA   PRAR   WARP3   PEAK   WPWT  PKPCT

Seaver 421 1463 142.9 50.2 96.6 35.1
Blyleven 311 1408 135.8 45.6 90.7 33.6
Perry 255 1434 133.4 47.7 90.6 35.8
Ryan 263 1488 131.1 42.2 86.7 32.2
Niekro 209 1385 130.0 42.2 86.1 32.5
Carlton 222 1357 123.8 38.0 80.9 33.6
Jenkins 236 1234 115.7 43.0 79.4 37.2
Palmer 230 1120 108.9 46.4 77.7 42.6
Sutton 170 1354 117.3 36.3 76.8 30.9
Hunter 38 836 76.0 42.0 59.0 55.3

One of these pitchers is not like the others, but it isn't Blyleven, it's Catfish Hunter, a pitcher who supposedly "pitched to the score" and thus had some high ERAs, not to mention a relatively short career. Blyleven is second among this group in WARP and PRAA, fourth in PEAK, and second in WPWT. At worst, by these measures, he's the fourth most valuable pitcher in this group. If that's not a Hall of Famer, I don't know what is. There isn't a player on the 2004 Hall of Fame ballot who deserves a vote more than Blyleven.

Jaffe is analytical, objective, and thorough. As such, his articles should be a must read by all of the Hall of Fame voters. If nothing else, these writers would at least be better informed the next time around. Quite frankly, basing decisions on memories and stats found on the back of a baseball card is simply an unacceptable method in the Information Age.

Steve Rushin of Sports Illlustrated devoted an entire column to Blyleven in the January 19, 2004 issue. Here is an excerpt from Rushin's "Hotfoot Him to the Hall":

Blyleven ranks fifth in career strikeouts. (Everyone else in the top 10 is or will be in the Hall of Fame.) He ranks ninth in shutouts. (Everyone else in the top 13 is in.) He ranks eighth all-time in games started. (Everyone else in the top 12 but sixth-ranked Tommy John is in.) And he ranks 13th all-time in innings pitched. (Everyone else in the top 16 is in.)

Hmmmm. I distinctly remember making some of those very arguments myself. Oh well, I'm glad to read that a member of the mainstream media is now jumping on the bandwagon. An article on behalf of Blyleven with the circulation of Sports Illustrated can only help his case. As I see it, the more, the merrier.

All aboard!

Richard Lederer
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT
www.baseballbeat.blogspot.com

Wednesday, January 14, 2004
 
Sandy Koufax and the 1965 World Series

ESPN Sports Classic replayed the Seventh Game of the 1965 World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Minnesota Twins last Saturday. Watching the videotape of this game was an enjoyable way to spend a weekend morning in January.

Let me set the stage. The Dodgers had won 13 consecutive games in the second half of September, including seven shutouts, to overtake the Cincinnati Reds and the San Francisco Giants (fresh off a 14-game win streak at the beginning of the month). Sandy Koufax beat the Milwaukee Braves, 2-1, on Saturday, October 2 to clinch the National League pennant in the second to last game of the season. Koufax, who led the N.L. that year in wins (26), ERA (2.04), complete games (27), and innings pitched (335 2/3), struck out 13 Braves to increase his then modern single-season record to 382.

Over in the American League, the Twins clinched their first pennant on the previous Sunday when Jim Kaat (18-11, 2.83) defeated the Washington Senators, 2-1. Minnesota dominated the A.L. in 1965. After opening day, the Twins were either in first or second place every day that season.

The linesmakers established the Dodgers as a 7:5 favorite to win the World Series. The Dodgers would have been an even heavier favorite if the first game had not fallen on Yom Kippur, causing Koufax to miss the opener and perhaps a third start should the Series go the distance.



In Game One, the underdog Twins knocked out Don Drysdale in the second inning en route to a 8-2 drubbing over the visitors. When Dodgers manager Walter Alston went to the mound to pull Drysdale, the big righthander reportedly quipped, "Hey, skip, I bet you wish I was Jewish today, too."

Kaat drove in Minnesota's first two runs and went on to defeat Koufax and the Dodgers, 5-1, in Game Two. The Dodgers bounced back and took games three through five in Los Angeles behind Claude Osteen's five-hit shutout, Drysdale's CG victory, and Koufax's four-hit shutout.

The Series returned to Metropolitan Stadium with the Twins down three games to two. Mudcat Grant hit a three-run homer and tossed a six hitter to beat the Dodgers, 5-1.

The Rubber Game of the Match

That brings us to Game Seven. Alston has a decision to make. Go with Drysdale in his normal turn in the rotation or bring back Koufax on two days rest? Alston announces at a team meeting the morning of Game Seven a decision he and his coaches had made the previous evening to go with "the lefthander". By starting Sandy rather than the Big D, Alston reasons that the Dodgers can throw a lefty (Koufax), righty (Drysdale), and lefty (Ron Perranoski) combination at the Twins, if need be.

The black and white telecast begins with Kaat, also back on two days rest, striking out Maury Wills. With Jim Gilliam on first base, Willie Davis tries to bunt for a hit. I can't fathom a number three hitter attempting a bunt single with a runner on first and one out in today's environment. Then again, a hitter of Davis' ineptitude would not be batting third either. I mean, can you imagine filling out the lineup card in the most crucial game of the year and writing down a player's name in the third slot with the following regular season stats?

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG

Davis 142 558 52 133 24 3 10 57 14 81 25 9 .238 .263 .346

Yes, that line is correct. The Dodgers #3 hitter had an on-base percentage of .263. The league average was .322 excluding pitchers. He also had an OPS of .609 versus .713 for the league. His OPS+ was 76, meaning he was 24% less productive than the average hitter, adjusted for ballpark conditions. Davis reached base 154 times (including just 14 by base on balls) and made 457 outs! Moneyball, anyone?

In defense of Alston, he didn't have much to choose from. Drysdale was the only player with a higher slugging average (.508) than Lou Johnson's .391 or an OPS (.839) better than Junior Gilliam's .758. And Double D was needed in the bullpen that day. As such, Alston went with Davis, the best "tools" player on the team.

Back to the ballgame. So, what did the "out machine" do? He promptly bunted the ball back to Kaat for an easy out at first. This strategy appears to be predicated on the belief that the Dodgers are looking to score one run anyway they can get it, knowing that Koufax has the potential of whitewashing the Twins once again.

In any event, the Dodgers cleanup hitter Johnson is retired to end the top of the first. Koufax takes the mound for his third start in eight days. The camera pans the field, showing the Dodgers defensively as well as Billy Martin coaching third for the Twins.

Zoilo Versalles, the A.L.'s MVP in 1965, strikes out to lead off the bottom of the first. Joe Nossek steps up and Koufax misses high on more than one occasion--owing to Metropolitan Stadium's "flat mound" as John Roseboro describes it in an audio clip, contrasting the Twins' flatter mound vs. the Dodgers' steeper mound. And you thought ballpark effects were mostly due to the distance of the outfield walls or the amount of foul territory?

Nossek strikes out, but Tony Oliva and Harmon Killebrew draw back-to-back walks. Koufax is clearly laboring at this point, taking his hat off and wiping his brow with his sleeve after almost every pitch. Drysdale starts loosening up in the bullpen. Sandy buckles down and whiffs Earl Battey to end the inning.

The videotape cuts to the bottom of the third inning. Kaat, while at the plate, is described by play-by-play announcer Ray Scott as "very fast...used as a pinch runner...likes to bunt for a base hit". Add in the fact that Kaat earned 16 consecutive Gold Gloves during his career, and it serves as a nice reminder just how good an athlete he was.

After Kaat is retired, Versalles lines a hanging curveball to center field for a single, prompting Drysdale to begin warming up for the second time. Zorro steals second but is sent back to first because the batter, Nossek, is called out for interference. Third base coach Martin walks toward home plate, arguing to no avail that Koufax is not coming to a full stop in his stretch. The Twins strand Versalles on first and the game heads to the fourth with no score.

Sweet Lou

Johnson leads off the top of the inning with a home run off the left field foul pole, giving the Dodgers a 1-0 lead. The "why do they call it a foul pole?" question rings through my mind. Ron Fairly doubles into the right field corner. Al Worthington, the ace of the Twins bullpen, begins to loosen up. Wes Parker follows with a groundball single to right, scoring Fairly with Parker taking second on Oliva's misplay. Dodgers two, Twins nothing. Sam Mele walks to the mound and points to the bullpen, calling for Worthington. Scott acknowledges that it's the "earliest" Worthington has appeared in a game in 1965.

Can you imagine Mike Scioscia bringing in Troy Percival or Joe Torre motioning for Mariano Rivera in the fourth inning of Game Seven of the World Series? Well, that is exactly what Mele did. Worthington had a 10-7 record with 21 saves (good for sixth in the A.L.) and an ERA of 2.14 in 1965. And, unlike a lot of other relievers in those days, Worthington had not pitched an unusually high number of innings during the regular season (only 80 spread over 62 games, for an average of 1 1/3 IP per game). Yet, in the final game of the season, the Twins "closer" was being asked to stop the bleeding right then and there.

Dick Tracewski, starting at second base in place of Jim Lefebvre (the N.L. Rookie of the Year in 1965), tries to sacrifice Parker to third but pops up to Worthington. Tracewski (.215/.313/.263 over the course of the season) goes 2-for-17 with one BB and no extra base hits in the Series. And modern-day Dodgers fans think Alex Cora and Cesar Izturis are pathetic? Worthington walks Roseboro, then retires Koufax and Wills to keep the game from getting out of hand early.

In the bottom of the fifth, Frank Quilici doubles off the base of the left center field fence. A check of Quilici's season stats (.208/.280/.255) makes Luis Rivas look like an acceptable option at second base. Drysdale gets up in the bullpen for the third time. Koufax walks Rich Rollins, who is pinch hitting for Worthington, on a 3-and-2 pitch, then slams his left fist into his glove. Alston walks to the mound while Vin Scully interjects that Koufax has had success with his fastball only. As Roseboro recalls in "True Blue--The Dramatic History of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Told by the Men Who Lived It":

"Sandy's arm was giving him problems in that last World Series game. He couldn't get his breaking ball over the plate. So I finally went out and said, 'Sandy, what's going on?' He said, 'I can't throw the goddamn curveball.' I said, 'Well, what are we gonna do?' He said, 'Fuck it! Let's just blow it by 'em!' "


The next batter, Versalles, then hits a sharp grounder down the third base line and Gilliam makes a spectacular backhanded catch, forcing Quilici at third and preventing at least one run from scoring. The so-called "NBC Instant Replay" allowed viewers to witness for a second time one of the best defensive plays in World Series history. Koufax gathers himself and retires Nossek on a 6-to-4 force out at second base. Nossek (.218/.250/.306), a righthanded-hitting rookie outfielder who went 4-for-20 in the Series with no walks or extra base hits, started in place of the lefthanded Jimmie Hall (.285/.347/.464) five times against Koufax and Osteen, the two Dodger southpaws. Hey, Sam, can you say "over manage"?

Koufax sets down Bob Allison, Don Mincher, and Quilici in order in the bottom of the seventh, and then gets pinch hitter Sandy Valdespino (a lefthanded reserve outfielder who, according to Scully, threw batting practice for the Twins before the game), Versalles, and Nossek 1-2-3 in the bottom of the eighth. With Drysdale, who has perhaps thrown as many pitches as Koufax, and Perranoski throwing in the bullpen behind Koufax, Scully reminds us that the Twins have Oliva, Killebrew, and Battey due up in the ninth.

In the top of the final frame, Koufax leads off and receives a round of applause from the Twins faithful. That would never happen today unless, of course, it was Roger Clemens' last...err, strike that thought. Nonetheless, Sandy swings and misses at a high fastball and laughs, then fails to check his swing on a breaking ball. Koufax pulls back his bat on a two-strike bunt attempt for ball one before feebly swinging and missing for strike three.

Scully, as only Vinny can do, then describes the defensive alignment for Wills, saying he "must feel like (third baseman) Killebrew's dentist". The Dodgers shortstop works Jim Perry for a walk. Scully, speculating as to whether Wills will try to steal, tells us that he has stolen three bases in the Series. Maury runs on the first pitch and is out on a good throw from Battey. Gilliam grounds out to end the inning.

Bottom of the Ninth

John Kennedy replaces Gilliam, the defensive star of the game, at third. Scott takes over the microphone and informs the viewers that the Twins must now face Sandy Koufax, "generally regarded as baseball's best pitcher".

Oliva steps in, swings and misses, losing his bat in the process as he was wont to do back then due to a bone chip in his hand. Tony O. hits an easy chopper to Kennedy for out number one. Koufax has now retired 12 in a row. Killebrew promptly lines a single to left. Battey walks to the plate, representing the tying run. The Twins catcher looks totally overmatched in his first two swings and then goes down looking. With two outs and a runner on first, up steps Allison. Scott chimes in, "It's Koufax's game to win or lose". Koufax blows down Allison swinging for his tenth strikeout of the game and second consecutive shutout, this time for all the grand marbles as the Dodgers beat the host Twins, 2-0, to wrap up the 1965 World Series championship. Game Seven was the only contest won by the visiting team. Alston and the Dodgers had won their fourth World Series title in eleven years.

After witnessing Sandy's clutch performance, I couldn't help but think poor ol' Grady Little must be wishing that he could have kibitzed with Koufax rather than Pedro Martinez in that all-important ALCS game last October. And that thought leads me to believe Sandy Koufax's place in baseball history has actually been undervalued by sabermetricians as a whole.

Brilliant If Not Brief

I recognize that Koufax benefited by pitching during the 1960s when runs were more scarce and by starting approximately half of his games in the expanse of Dodger Stadium, one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks of the past 40 years. However, sabermetricians routinely undervalue Koufax's counting stats during his peak years and fail to give proper credit for pitching on two or three days rest, especially at critical junctures in the season such as Game Seven of the 1965 World Series.

According to Jane Leavy in her masterfully written book, "Sandy Koufax: A Lefty's Legacy", the Dodger great pitched on two days rest eight times in his career. He had six victories, including three complete game wins with a combined total of 35 strikeouts.

How valuable is it to get one additional game out of a pitcher like Koufax in a seven-game series? That's a 50% increase over the more normal two starts. If that extra game is what makes the difference between winning and losing the World Championship, how do we quantify that?

Since 1950, there have been only three starting pitchers besides Koufax who won Game Seven of the World Series on only two days of rest. All four pitchers won the fifth and seventh games on a Monday and Thursday. In 1957, Lew Burdette of the Milwaukee Braves defeated the New York Yankees, 1-0 and 5-0. In 1964, Bob Gibson of the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Yankees, 5-2 and 7-5. In 1968, Mickey Lolich of the Detroit Tigers beat the Cardinals, 5-3 and 4-1.

You may recall that Josh Beckett pitched a complete-game five-hitter, striking out nine to win Game Six and the 2003 World Series title on three days rest. Beckett's gutsy effort is sure to become part of World Series lore.

I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Christy Mathewson pitched three complete-game shutouts over the course of six days in the 1905 World Series, winning games one, three, and five. Mathewson's totals included three shutout wins, 18 strikeouts, 14 hits allowed, and only one walk in what may be the most remarkable pitching performance in World Series history.

For The Record

In Koufax's case, the two Series shutouts gave him a total of 29 complete games and 10 shutouts for the entire season. He threw 360 innings, striking out 411 batters along the way against only 76 walks. Sandy's won-loss record was 28-9 and his combined ERA was 1.93. He also had two saves in the only two games he didn't start that year.

Koufax's ERA for the regular season was 1.50 below the league average. His 2.04 ERA in a league context of 3.54 is better than a 3.00 ERA in today's league context of 4.50 because the former represents .576 of the league average versus .667 for the latter. Granted, the ballpark effects need to be evaluated but so do the incremental innings that Koufax pitched not only in the regular season but also in the postseason, an area that tends to get very little, if any, attention from the sabermetric crowd.

Factoring in park effects, Koufax's ERA was still an impressive 1.22 better than the league average. Based on the number of innings pitched, Koufax's superiority was worth about 56 runs on an actual basis and 45 runs on an adjusted basis vs. an average pitcher. And therein lies one of the problems when measuring Koufax's greatness. Average pitchers don't throw 300+ innings. A team might be able to change out 10 or 20 or even 25 innings at or close to an average rate, but it becomes a much more difficult proposition to replace the additional 50, 75, or 100 IP that Koufax provided his team.

Now I like Pedro Martinez as much as the next guy. On the basis of adjusted rate stats, Pedro compares favorably to just about any pitcher in the history of major league baseball. However, I think sabermetricians need to make sure they don't overlook just how dominant Sandy Koufax was during his heyday, too.

Soaking up Game Seven of the 1965 World Series 38 years later serves as a beautiful reminder of what once was.

Richard Lederer
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT
www.baseballbeat.blogspot.com


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